Recent emissions and projections of change to 2030 suggest that the scenarios in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios were no longer a reliable guide to emissions over the next several decades, Graeme Pearman told the Australian Government Department of Treasury, in a commissioned report.

Temperature and sea-level-rise move off the scale: Pearman said 'Projections of temperature and sea-levels made previously by the IPCC (various scenarios represented by the shaded areas and dotted lines), showing how they generally fall below the changes that have since been observed'.

Actual compared to forecast: 'Recent assessment of global carbon dioxide emissions compared with scenarios of future emissions from the IPCC showing that the emissions are tracking the upper level (more like a business as usual trajectory) and provide no indication that the rate of growth of emissions is moderating'.