The changes ahead were beyond human experience, and probably catastrophic, Federal Treasury was told. Global temperatures would probably rise by even more than 5C or 6C. Wars, disaster and huge migrations of people were expected.

Annual change in sea-surface temperature: The map shows the annual change in sea-surface temperature (colour code in C) from 1990 by 2030 using the 750 ppmv stabilisation (A1B) emission scenario. The climate data showed it was now warming at levels above the worst-case.

What 50 percentile means: The 50th percentile indicates that there is a 50 per cent chance that at least this amount of warming will occur by 2030. The 10th and 90th percentiles represent where it is very likely or very unlikely that the indicated warming will occur.

Temperature will rise by even more than 5C or 6C: 'The latest signs suggest that the Earth's average temperature will rise by even more than 5C or 6C if emissions continue to grow and positive feedback amplifies the warming effect of greenhouse gases (e.g. release of carbon dioxide from soils or methane from permafrost). This level of global temperature rise would be equivalent to the amount of warming that occurred between the last ice age and today and is likely to lead to major disruption and large-scale movement of population'.

Probable catastrophic outcomes of the current trend were:

- Major loss of complete ecosystems: 'serious resilience and structural problems for remaining assemblages of species. Adaptive capacity exceeded.

- Dangerous water availability problems: ' by as early as 2050 and compounding beyond. Adaptive

capacity exceeded.

- Dangerous sea-level rise: 'and storm surges; high probability of non-linear additional sea-level rise

- Melting of the Greenland ice sheet: 'was likely.

- Food shortages in a world with significant levels of starvation. Adaptive capacity exceeded;

- Health impacts exceed adaptive capacity;

- Highly vulnerable Australian human habitation; inundation, insufficient water supply, human health problems, storminess, bushfires, inadequate power supply, invasive pests.

- Compromised international markets and security: starvation, displacement, migration, environmental refugees and wars.